People overestimate their ability to predict outcomes after the fact.
<aside> ℹ️ This is a tendency to perceive events that have already occurred or facts that have already been established as obvious and predictable, despite the lack of sufficient initial information to predict them. Hindsight bias is also called the “knew-it-all-along” effect or “creeping determinism”.
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The hindsight bias describes our tendency to look back at an unpredictable event and think it was easily predictable. It is also called the “knew-it-all-along” effect.
This bias reflects a tendency to claim that a particular outcome was to be expected. We typically feel that we “knew” something would happen. One of the reasons we’re affected by this bias is the inherent need to understand the world around us. It’s a mechanism that helps us feel safer in an unpredictable world.
Hindsight bias can be harmful to the UX design process. We often selectively recall certain events and viewpoints that are consistent with what we know to be true. This, as a result, allows us to fallaciously validate our knowledge and understanding of the world.
Acting upon this bias can jeopardize a designer’s thought process and lead to improper choices.
In the context of product management, understanding this bias requires us to investigate the expectations of our users. So, if our product is in a sketchy market that doesn't have the best reputation, then our users will expect a negative experience from our product that is inherent in the market.
If the problems are inevitable, we can use this bias to alleviate damage upfront. Thus, we can proactively create handling mechanisms instead of reactively working on real-time issues when the time comes.
Hindsight Bias: Causes, Examples and FAQ
Why do unpredictable events only seem predictable after they occur?
Common Types of Design Bias & How to Overcome Them
Hindsight Bias: “I knew it all along, didn’t I?”